FRED US Macro Core Data

Core U.S. macro history and replay-ready market event data sourced from FRED.

This repository now publishes the high-impact P1 macro dataset used for market replay. The older broad dataset whose event coverage effectively started in 2019 has been removed and replaced with full available history for the selected core releases.

This refresh also adds consensus actual / forecast / previous values matched from Investing.com Economic Calendar history where coverage is available.

What's inside

• data/fred-us-macro-history.json
  • raw historical FRED observations for the included series
• data/fred-us-macro-events.json
  • replay-ready macro event records derived from the same series, now enriched with metadata.consensus when matched consensus history exists
• data/investing-us-macro-consensus.json
  • raw Investing.com Economic Calendar occurrence snapshot used for the consensus enrichment
• metadata/series-catalog.json
  • series metadata, transformed event value type, event counts, coverage, and source URLs
• metadata/dataset-metadata.json
  • generation metadata, dataset stats, and scope notes
• metadata/excluded-series.json
  • known third-party FRED series that are not shipped because their notes include copyright or redistribution restrictions

Current coverage

Latest refresh in this repository:

• 15 core high-impact series
• 18,359 historical observations
• 11,986 replay-ready events
• oldest observation: 1913-01-01
• oldest event: 1914-01-01T13:30:00.000Z
• newest event: 2026-04-23T12:30:00.000Z
• 5,752 events with FRED vintage release dates
• 6,234 older events with approximate release dates
• 3,502 events enriched with Investing.com consensus actual / previous values
• 2,692 events with explicit consensus forecast values
• 14 of 15 shipped series have some forecast coverage; GDP currently has no matched forecast series

Included core series

FRED ID	Event value	Market use
DFEDTARU	Federal funds target upper limit	Fed policy rate changes
CPIAUCNS	CPI year-over-year percent	Headline inflation
CPILFENS	Core CPI year-over-year percent	Core inflation
PPIACO	PPI year-over-year percent	Producer inflation
PCEPI	PCE price index year-over-year percent	Fed-preferred inflation trend
PCEPILFE	Core PCE year-over-year percent	Fed-preferred core inflation
UNRATE	Unemployment rate level	Labor market slack
PAYEMS	Nonfarm payroll monthly change	Employment growth
ADPMNUSNERSA	ADP employment monthly change	Private payroll preview
CES0500000003	Average hourly earnings month-over-month percent	Wage inflation
ICSA	Initial jobless claims level	High-frequency labor stress
JTSJOL	JOLTS job openings level	Labor demand
GDP	Nominal GDP quarter-over-quarter annualized percent	Growth
GDPC1	Real GDP quarter-over-quarter annualized percent	Real growth
RSAFS	Retail sales month-over-month percent	Consumption demand

DFEDTARU is a daily source series, but this dataset only emits replay events when the policy rate changes. The noisy one-observation-per-day event stream is intentionally not published.

Actual vs expected values

FRED provides observations and vintage/release metadata for these series, but it does not provide consensus forecast or expected-value fields. This dataset keeps FRED as the source of record for observations and release timing, then enriches matching event records with consensus values from Investing.com Economic Calendar history.

When available, event records include:

• metadata.consensus.actual
• metadata.consensus.forecast
• metadata.consensus.previous
• metadata.consensus.previousRevisedFrom
• metadata.consensus.surprise
• metadata.consensus.sourceId = investing-economic-calendar
• metadata.consensus.sourceUrl

Coverage is partial and varies by series and year. Matching uses release-time proximity plus Investing.com reference-period month/quarter alignment, so delayed multi-month release days are kept distinct. Missing forecasts are stored as null, not 0. Older rows may have actual / previous values but no forecast.

Consensus forecast coverage

FRED ID	Release	Consensus-matched events	Events with forecast	First forecast observation	Latest forecast observation
DFEDTARU	Fed funds target upper limit	32	30	2008-12-16	2025-12-11
CPIAUCNS	Headline CPI YoY	255	167	2012-04-01	2026-03-01
CPILFENS	Core CPI YoY	255	167	2012-04-01	2026-03-01
PPIACO	PPI YoY	168	167	2012-04-01	2026-03-01
PCEPI	PCE Price Index YoY	80	40	2019-10-01	2026-02-01
PCEPILFE	Core PCE Price Index YoY	140	130	2014-10-01	2026-02-01
UNRATE	Unemployment Rate	307	212	2008-07-01	2026-03-01
PAYEMS	Nonfarm Payrolls	627	217	2008-02-01	2026-03-01
ADPMNUSNERSA	ADP Employment Change	64	64	2010-04-01	2026-03-01
CES0500000003	Avg Hourly Earnings MoM	187	185	2008-05-01	2026-03-01
ICSA	Initial Jobless Claims	945	875	2009-05-30	2026-04-18
JTSJOL	JOLTS Job Openings	152	148	2013-06-01	2026-02-01
GDP	Nominal GDP QoQ annualized	0	0	-	-
GDPC1	Real GDP QoQ annualized	72	72	2008-01-01	2025-10-01
RSAFS	Retail Sales MoM	218	218	2008-01-01	2026-03-01

Data format

History

data/fred-us-macro-history.json contains raw FRED observation history:

• generatedAt
• historyStart
• sourceId
• sourceLabel
• stats
• series[]
  • id
  • label
  • labelZh
  • title
  • category
  • frequency
  • frequencyShort
  • observationStart
  • observationEnd
  • units
  • unitsShort
  • sourceUrl
  • observations[]
    • date
    • value

Events

data/fred-us-macro-events.json contains replay-ready records sorted newest first:

• generatedAt
• sourceId
• sourceLabel
• stats
• events[]
  • id
  • createdAt
  • primaryCategory
  • text
  • textEn
  • textZh
  • url
  • metadata
    • seriesId
    • observationDate
    • releaseDate
    • releaseDateApproximate
    • rawValue
    • value
    • valueKind
    • valueUnit
    • previousValue
    • change
    • pctChange
    • consensus
      • actual
      • forecast
      • previous
      • previousRevisedFrom
      • surprise
      • surprisePct
      • sourceId
      • sourceLabel
      • sourceUrl

For transformed event series, metadata.value is the market-facing actual value used in replay. For example, CPI/PCE/PPI events use year-over-year percent, payroll events use period change, GDP events use annualized quarter-over-quarter percent, and metadata.rawValue preserves the original FRED observation.

Release-date caveat

Where FRED vintage dates are available, event timestamps use those release dates with a market-standard release time. Older observations often do not have vintage release dates in FRED. Those records are still useful for long-run replay context, but they are marked with metadata.releaseDateApproximate: true.

Attribution

This dataset is sourced from FRED and the original data owners behind each series. When displaying or redistributing derived views, please keep source attribution. A safe default is:

Source: Original series owner via FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

For series-specific source URLs, see metadata/series-catalog.json.

Important note

This repository is a focused core macro dataset, not a complete mirror of FRED. You are still responsible for checking the original source terms for your own use case.

Upstream references

• FRED API overview: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/docs/api/fred/overview.html
• FRED API terms of use: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/docs/api/terms_of_use.html
• FRED legal terms: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/legal/terms/